American Idol - Top 24 Handicapping

The American Idol blog is back by popular demand. Well, one guy who used to read my blog a few seasons ago asked me to bring it back, so we GOT THE BAND BACK TOGETHER just for him. And you, Mr. and Mrs. Reader.

Let's get right to it. This year is a make or break year for Idol. It's a machine at this point, but when have you ever seen a show last this long without being completely scrutinized at every turn, or falling off the face of the pop culture Earth. Sure, there is the occasional show that stays relevant after that period of time, but how long do you expect a show with people singing karaoke, and then being told by a crotchety (my favorite word, by far) judge that they are doing just that. It has to get old at some point, doesn't it? Furthermore, the problems with the show do not start, nor end with Simon, but rather with the two people sitting to his right. They have become nothing more than shills for the machine that is American Idol, and Fox.

There are 24 contestants still remaining, with four being cut tonight. For some reason, even after they ruined last year by making the final 12 half men and half women – I hasten to say boys and girls here because some of the contestants are closer to fathering a teenager than being one – the producers decided to once again segregate the cast by gender. When they get down to the final 12, we'll be subjected to four or five competent female singers, two male singers trying to keep up, and half a stage full of cannon fodder.

Which brings us to the next three weeks. It has been widely discussed online that many in the cast are hand-picked plants in order to ensure the show's safety from being hijacked by the likes of Sanjaya. That's why the nerdy kid who wants to be a politician didn't get in, much to Simon's chagrin. That's why Josiah didn't get in. That little kid in the house on wheels will be a sensation for 15 or so minutes, but he would have stolen this season the likes that Chicken Little could only dream. The best thing for him, and the show, was not getting into the finals.

So who did get in? Well, the plants are abundant, and it's obvious the producers have four guys in mind for the final 12. Which means there will only be two spots open for eight guys. The women's division is as rigged as the men's, but those hand-picked few aren't as good as the producers hoped. So that side of the ledger is a little more wide open.

Let's get to it. Guys first:

The Cannon Fodder Division
Jason Yeager, Luke Menard, Garrett Haley

There's a reason we never saw these three before Tuesday night. They all stink. I would not be shocked it two of the three are gone in week one. Oddly enough, I think that if Luke gets past this week, he's just handsome enough to stick around for a few weeks. But you know how I feel about senior citizens on this show. The show is infinitely worse since they raised the age limit. Sure the older contestants are more polished, but if you're 28 years old and you haven't made it yet, think of another career. There's just something so desperate about begging for votes on a show like this when you're almost 30. And to compound that, it's even worse when you have a son who is almost a teenager. And, I'm sorry, but WHAT is the deal with the blonde streak in Yeager's hair? That should have disqualified him from the start.

Haley is the sacrificial lamb this season. He's on just to get voted off. I feel sorry for the guy, even if he does look the love child of Robert Plant and Skeletor. Hey, it was the 80s....you never know.

The No Chance Crew
Sorry to say that Colton Berry and the Davids Hernandez and Cook have no shot either. One of these guys may sneak into the finals with a a few good weeks. Or one could be gone tonight. I think Colton has the best chance of being gone, and Cook can put together a good run, but they are all lost in the quagmire of being not good enough, and nobody in their corner to say they were good when they weren't.

These guys need things to break their way
Chikeze leads this category. He would have no shot, but he's the only black guy, and listen...every final 12 needs a black guy. Also, he's mouthy, which we didn't see before in the clips, so that might keep him around if he's smart. People like smack talk, but when you talk smack to Simon and he's right, you're gone quickly. He'd be mindful to keep his trash talking to a minimum and focus on the opportunity the judges gave him.

Jason Castro – who was obviously high on Tuesday – has a shot to go far if he stays as good as he was this week. But the deck is stacked against him with the four the producers want to get into the finals.

The Hand Picked
Danny Noriega is just on this show to infuriate the public, and to start a rivalry with Simon. But I think they want him to get into the finals, then bow out....as gracefully as he can, which by the looks of it, won't be very graceful.

Robbie Carrico is a former boy bander turned rocker. That's all I have to say.

David Archuleta is the golden boy of the season. He's a former Star Search winner, and I think he's terrible, but he's a cute kid and will sail into the final five or six. But he can't win, can he?

Michael Johns is my least favorite. He's from Australia. He came when he was 19 to America. David Archuleta is only 17 NOW. Something is wrong with that. But he's in the final four right now. No doubt.

Now, the ladies...

This is harder because it's going to actually depend on how they do each week. I hate Carly Smithson and her phony story. She's awful, she can't sing as well as they hoped and Randy's unabashed promotion of her is ridiculous. But she's a finalist, and probably in the top five.

Syesha is in a Ford commercial, so she's an obvious plant. But she's the best, and should be in the final four.

Kristy Lee Cook is a plant, with a fake story about selling a horse. Who sells a horse to fly from Oregon to Philly to try out for a singing show? How much could that flight cost? Well, she's not going to be getting that horse back with her Idol winnings, because she's gone....and soon. Maybe even tonight.

Alaina Whitaker is a poor girl's Carrie Underwood, but she's young, and malleable. So let's root for her. I think she'll get into the final 12, but not sure how far after that she'll go.

Asia'h is a little spitfire, and she'll go further than the producers thought she'd go. She was the surprise of the night last night, as I thought she'd be terrible when you forget the sob story of her dad dying days before she auditioned.

Alexandrea's last name is Lushington. But they decided to make Chikeze the one named contestant this week. Nice choice. She was good, and had some good energy. Another surprise to me. Finalist? I don't think so, but better that I thought.

What's less than a one-trick pony? Can Amanda Overmyer be half a trick pony? Is that possible? They hope she goes far, but they better find good songs that will protect her because she'll get old – perhaps as old as she looks and sounds – quick.

Amy Davis is gone tonight, so I won't waste my time with her. Have fun when the car show comes to town.

Brooke White will get in the finals because she's actually good at performing music. Don't they need one of those? No way she gets far, thought.

Joanne Borgella is a plus sized model. Did I mention she's a PLUS SIZED model? Why is that important? She doesn't say she's a black model. Why does she qualify it by saying plus sized? We can see. We know she's plus sized. We also know she can't sing. She won't make it to the finals.

Kady Malloy can sing like Britney Spears. She looks the part, and can sing, but she is completely vapid. She has no personality to speak of, which is probably why she's good at impersonating people. I have no clue what to think of her. She could be gone tonight, or she could be in the final four. It's just a matter of if she can put it together before America is sick of watching air go through her ears when the judges talk. Huh? What? Exactly.

Last is Ramiele who I hated going in, but she was actually pretty good, so she's another I don't know about. I guess if my math is right, it's between her, Kady and Amanda for the final spot in the finals.

Final Four Prediction


The thing you have to keep in mind is that things change every week. It depends on who is left, what style of songs they sing and lots of other factors (judges notwithstanding). That said, the final four will be:

David Archuleta, Michael Johns
Syesha, Alaina.

I've never been more unsure of those picks. I may have all of them wrong. And I guess that's what they want, don't they. So I'm rooting for Castro. I mean, with Fidel Castro retiring this week, it'd be only right to have another Castro hold America hostage.

Good luck to all of us...I mean them.


Editorial note: I wasn't totally wrong, as Joanne, Amy, Garrett and Colton are gone. I'll take that as a 4-4 situation. I'd prefer Jason gone instead of Colton, but there's always next week.